Commentary
Published 11:32 PM, 24 Nov 2009
Last update 11:32 PM, 24 Nov 2009
Turnbull's dead-man walk
Editor's note: This commentary was published before the leadership ballot, in which Malcom Turnbull retained the coalition leadership.
It was Bob Hawke who put it best, some 25 years ago: If you can’t govern yourselves, you can’t govern the country.
That’s the first, last and only public take from Malcolm Turnbull’s coalition following his ‘victory’ on emissions trading last night.
It was an ebullient, eloquent, charming Turnbull who faced a hungry press gallery – beamed live on subscription TV – last night to declare: “I’m the Leader – it was my call”
The only problem for Mr Turnbull is that he has left behind a seething, bitter, rancorous back bench and a publicly divided front bench.
Not only is the Liberal Party in open warfare, but the National Party – the coalition partner if they were ever to form a government – have told Turnbull to “go jump” on this issue.
Business Spectator has been told by a Liberal MP that the debate in the party room was “feral”, “nasty” and “like nothing I’ve ever seen in all my years in this job”.
Already the knives have been unsheathed, and backbench rebel Wilson Tuckey has sent a letter to every colleague calling for a leadership spill this Thursday – the last scheduled sitting day for the House of Reps.
Turnbull – flanked at the press conference by Deputy Julie Bishop and opposition negotiator, Ian MacFarlane – mounted his previously heard argument about the need for action on climate change, and explained his role in the ETS policy put by John Howard at the last election.
But already the texts and the tweets were flying between Liberal politicians and the Press Gallery. News was being made on the run, before our eyes and ears.
I’ve been a participant and observer in federal politics since 1974 and – apart from the drama surrounding the dismissal of Gough Whitlam – have never seen such open, in-your-face disdain for a Liberal Party leader.
It wasn’t just the backbench. It was the frontbench. Andrew Robb – who would have been the opposition negotiator before he took leave for depressive illness – delivered a killer blow.
He didn’t forewarn his leader that he was going to oppose him. It was a calculated, pre-planned act of political defiance. The word ‘turncoat’ comes to mind. And it ignited the party room.
If this spill eventuates – and it won’t be Wilson Tuckey who formally calls it on, but a more senior figure – the numbers will be close, as they always are when political parties go through these periods of self-examination.
If Turnbull survives any leadership spill, he will be a dead man walking. The dissidents will have more than one shot in their locker.
The only real alternatives are Joe Hockey or Tony Abbott. Neither are electable this election, and they know it because the Liberal brand is so diminished.
Of course, this means that the political focus in Australia over the next weeks and months will be all about the Liberal leadership.
It won’t be about the quality of the ETS legislation – which may now still pass the Senate – or about other climate change issues or the budget deficit or interest rates.
No, it will be about the Liberal Party’s public implosion after a decade of political dominance and discipline that comes from actually being in government.
The next Liberal Prime Minister is not even a member of the current Parliament – yesterday’s events made that a near certainty.