Age will weary the Chinese miracle

This is a really excellent (and accurate)analysis of China's current situation and its future in the Asian Century, and in particular of the effect of SOE's on its economy (China will be too old to dominate, October 3).
The next generation of leaders will not have the luxury of time at their disposal. It is clear to those of us who live here that life is a struggle for the average household many of whom are just an accident illness away from total destitution.

Great article. It's just more food for thought for all those 'China Bulls' who think China will keep buying all our rocks that we dig out of the ground indefinitely.
When reality kicks in for China, Australia will be in a world of hurt (Age will weary the Chinese miracle, October 3).

This article should be written from a perspective of "future challenges" for China (Age will weary the Chinese miracle, October 3).
I said this, because one must remember China's prosperity today is in part attributable to Mao's one child policy, ie population control, and Deng's economic reform and open door policies. Population size matters, positively and negatively.
What China experiences now is the fruition of successful implementation of these policies.
Like many economically advanced nations, aging population, ie imbalances in population age structure, will be a growing and important issue for China, esp as China matures in the not too distance future.
The level of human consumption patters are likely to remain, albeit different or changing with advancing age. I leave the rest of the speculation to the economists and consumption experts.
"China" or Asian century will be attested by history, not contemporary being. For now and over the next few decades, China remains and is the lightning torch of the world economy. Let's accept the fact and don't knock the Applecart.

I'm not sure John really understands China (Age will weary the Chinese miracle, October 3). Firstly he refers to a retirement age. There is no formal pension and many people work way past 65.
Secondly the one child policy has led to very high numbers of well educated high achievers compared to the earlier period of lots of kids but they were poorly educated and low achievers.
Third this generation is putting in place the infrastructure that might only need to be built once, giving the future smaller number of workers a free ride.
Fourth the ageing population were not very productive, they are largely a lost generation from the Mao era.
Fifthly you are clearly a follower of GDP which the Chinese are not. India (and Australia) grow their GDP by increasing the population and by increasing consumption. Apply the same principles to your household and in reality you get poorer at the same time as GDP funded by debt gets bigger. It's a fools paradox.

Ray (October 3, 10.01am) there is a vast rural population of around 400 million who really struggle (Age will weary the Chinese miracle, October 3). Yes their children are educated but the standard is low. Access to health care is negligible in the remote and rural areas. Even in the cities the vast majority of workers are very poorly paid and just about make ends meet if that.
I think John's description of the situation here and the task facing the next generation of leaders is accurate. It is the best I have seen in a very long time.

China's policies have provided it with a short term gain however they are clearly unsustainable and will deliver a considerable long term loss (Age will weary the Chinese miracle, October 3).
I believe their politicians are are even more short sighted than our own and make their decisions accordingly. When they realise the inevitable train wreck is near - it will be harder for them to implement the paradigm shifts necessary to salvage the situation. We are flat out doing it in a small scale like Australia - how could they do it with a population of 1+ billion?
I think it is disturbing as desperate times will call for desperate measures - and with such a lot at stake who knows what China will do?

John, I think you have missed an important point. China is a Communist country and does not have to abide by Democratic rules (Age will weary the Chinese miracle, October 3). Their one child policy has set them up for a much more "sustainable' society into the future. The redistibution of wealth may take centuriesto occour as it has (and is still) happening in the west. Extended Family is still an important concept in China, and has worked well for millenium. They are where Britain was at the time of Magna Carta.

What has not been mentioned is how the demographics are shifting and how "Africa" will have the dominant population growth as China and other countries "age".
Africa is well catered for with most minerals that are found in Australia so presumably they will look to exploit their own resources rather than purchase from overseas.
If at that time a significant portion of the mineral assets in "Africa" are in the hands of other nationalities when this population growth gains legs, soverign risk may well become a very interesting topic (Age will weary the Chinese miracle, October 3).

The lack of manpower in Britain in the 18th century fueled the Industrial Revolution (Age will weary the Chinese miracle, October 3). Similarly an aging population and a reduced workforce will mean China has to change from people power to technology power. This is already happening! No need to feel pessimistic about an ageing China. Also the concept of retirement is not yet entrenched in Chinese culture as it is in the west. And people still need food, clothing and shelter at any age.

The statement that "Currently, more than half of the population still live on less than $US2 per day" seems highly dubious to me (Age will weary the Chinese miracle, October 3). Low skilled workers typicaly get paid 1,500 Yuan per month and construction workers get more like 6,000. We recently had our house in Zhengzhou fitted out and we have a cleaner who gets paid about $US 1.50/hour. Yes, my evidence is very limited and anecdotal but half the population on less than $2 / day just doesn't ring true. Even rural areas look better off than this to me.

There is a light at the end of the tunnel and it's an on-coming train. Japan's major export these days is robot and artificial intelligence technology (Age will weary the Chinese miracle, October 3).
China's not far behind. Neither is the US or Europe.
Within 50 years, all manufacturing tasks of any substance will be done by machines.
Machines will repair machines.
In the area of health, a vital aspect of aged care for the future, blood tests will be totally robotised. Even diagnosis of MRI scans and pathology sections for things like breast cancer are now more quickly and reliably done by machines than by humans.
All accounting will be automatic without the need for accountants.
Faced with this reality, I don't see an aging population being a problem.
The problem I see is how conventional economics and social structures can accommodate the need for there to be wealth distribution. After all, if no one has money to buy things, there is little point in making them.
I look forward with some interest to the next article dealing with this aspect of the future.

Any forward analysis of China must surely take into account the real possibility that the Teenagers of China will not accept the Status Quo (Age will weary the Chinese miracle, October 3). As we speak they are buying Smart Phones & connecting with the outside world. They will not accept the Single Party State. They will have 1 of the great Spits of all time within 5 years and The KMT will fall overnight. It will make Tianenmen Square look like nothing happened. Remember, The Soviet Union fell overnight, The US State Dept taken by surprise.

Age might weary the Chinese miracle; overpopulation will kill off the Indian miracle. And many other countries seeking to believe in the Western overconsumption miracle! (Age will weary the Chinese miracle, October 4.)
And as I have pointed out how can GDP grow; the so-called panacea of wealth; and to be more blunt human wealth to the detriment of our own existence; and that of every other species on earth; when humans population is growing faster than any economy could ever grow. So by definition GDP must progressively fall; not grow/be higher.
So good on the Chinese for doing something about it; they can now adjust upwards say to 1.5 people per family. Maybe someone should let them know that too many males without females per head must increase the “value” per se of their female population.
i.e. demand for females vs lack of supply would have to “value” females up for a desperate male population. Unless they all become gay!
But let us be sure, previous famines they have had there, must have resulted in a desperate Chinese population consuming their wild life; why in their cities are there so very few birds. It must have been desperate circumstances that caused the 1-child policy.
Never judge them today for something that caused the introduction of the policy.
As for us writing articles on topics like this; well let me tell you. For any overpopulated country to aspire to the way we do it in the "Western World". Wrong. It is an impossible dream. So don't even sew the possibility or create the illusion of it being possible.
And if we think some of the tensions in higher populated parts of the world and general hatred towards us is not being envious of our so-called happy wold of material things then we are naive. Completely naïve.
The wold has a massive massive population problem. It is the biggest on the UN agenda. Instead of contraception and education programs, the UN sends in troops and guns; nurses and contraception would be far more productive.

This article ignores the reality that China does not pay social security and has no obligations to its poor (Age will weary the Chinese miracle, October 3). As well as that the one child policy has seen been in full swing for a long time so why is tomorrow going to be any different to yesterday.
The problem with this essay is that it attempts to compare a Communist regime with a capatalist society and the two are very different. Things will be no different for many Chinese as they always have been. Japan is a totally different case.

China's rapidly increasing productivity will take care of its aged population quite handily. That's one reason why productivity is the holy grail of most economies (Age will weary the Chinese miracle, October 4).
China's is a standout, which is why it's people enjoy 15% annual wage growth and 90% home ownership.
For an excellent, readable introduction to China's productivity, start here and follow the links: http://inpraiseofchina.blogspot.com/2011/01/chinas-productivity-miracle.html