Alan Kohler is one of Australia’s most experienced commentators and journalists. Alan is the founder of Eureka Report, Australia’s most successful investment newsletter, and Business Spectator, a 24-hour free business news and commentary website. He also hosts Inside Business, a half-hour Sunday programme on the ABC, is the finance presenter on the ABC News - and producer of the nightly graph (or two).
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Comments on this article
Comments Policy"If the US, which is still the worlds largest economy, can register even a moderate expansion in 2013 with GDP growth around 2.5 per cent"
Stephen has a very optimistic view of the outcome of the fiscal cliff negotiations. He ought explain why he thinks US GDP of 2.5 is a real possiblity in the US.
No one else seems to expect anything like that. Some expect mild recession has already started (eg John Hussman) or that the fiscal contraction resulting from any fiscal cliff deal will cause a net contraction in GDP (Hope springs for a global recovery, December 10)
If all we have left is hope then it's time to panic (Hope springs for a global recovery, December 10).
Hope is not an investment strategy.
The employment figures coming out of the USA Stephen are at best a sick joke. How can the headline unemployment rate drop when 542,000 'discouraged' workers dropped out of the labour pool ?
Just like here in Australia the enemployment rate is a tortured and battered figure not allowed to speak of reality.
There will be no global recovery until the underlying debt issues are addressed head on, not continually being swept under the carpet as at present....
China is an out of control building boom set to come crashing down. The US is an out of control financial services industry addicted to Federal Reserve stimulus. Not much that 'hope' can do to offset those realities, but good luck with it. (Hope springs for a global recovery, December 10).
Such negative comments in response to this article (Hope springs for a global recovery, December 10).
It seems people are paying down debt and not spending or investing because they are nervous which is not surprising given all the talk of bubbles and cliffs.
If most people think the economy is going to be okay and began spending and investing accordingly, wouldn't that make it so?
Not sure how the number crunchers would quantify that but hey.
The problem with spending is that most of it is spent on items that lose all their value once you walk out of the shop and add little value to ones life.
This is why I have stopped spending, what is the point off it (Hope springs for a global recovery, December 10).