Felix Zulauf's market prognosis

Good article Karen. This is well thought out and runs logically (Felix Zulauf's market prognosis, February 13).
David Murray points out that the federal government, together with the states (mainly Labor governments), have $500 billion in debt. I do not think we will get off lightly, as you say. Queensland Labor (seeking re-election; the cheek) has bankrupted us.

Thank you for presenting this Karen – it is by far the best short summary of how things really are that I have read in a long time (Felix Zulauf's market prognosis, February 13). I think I shall frame it and hang it on the wall to provide an investing sanity check in the years to come.

He's not at the top of his game, right now here in Switzerland he would know from figures just published that tourism in Greece is almost non-existent (Felix Zulauf's market prognosis, February 13).
Greeks aren't making money from tourism because folks are scared of violence and cost pressures on holiday packages.
The general feeling here is Greece has been contained either way and and markets will lift in the second half.

Tony Holland (February 13, 11.20am) seems to have missed the critical point that Felix Zulauf said that Greek tourism would return when the drachma replaced the euro at 50 per cent of its value (Felix Zulauf's market prognosis, February 13). That would make Greece a very cheap destination and by then, Greece would be cut loose to run their economy internally how they liked. That would also stop the rioting which in turn would make tourism attractive again.

Thanks Karen! (Felix Zulauf's market prognosis, February 13). Mr Zulauf is a new name to me but he seems to see the big picture clearly.
I have received other warnings which gives September 2012 as a critical time economically for Australia and I should get ready to sell my "risk assets".

I think Tony Holland's criticism (February 13, 11.20am) is a misrepresentation of what Felix Zulauf really said. (Felix Zulauf's market prognosis, February 13). It seems to me Felix was merely making the point that tourism is structurally and traditionally the backbone of the Greek economy (which is one of the many reasons why their growth prospects are almost non-existent now).
In addition, I would certainly not place too much value on the "general feeling" in any country. I think Felix is much closer to the mark than the "general feeling" Tony talks about. Excellent analysis by Felix and one of the great articles on Business Spectator, Karen.

It's late here and Im jet lagged watching the Australian market and reading the good ole Business Spectator (which is about the best reading currently available to me). But, I can only say the guys I had dinner with, including my son and his team look at more money daily than Felix can throw a stick at. Indeed some of these guys are the guns of major banks here, so I repeat, I'd back that general feeling anytime....cos, not only do I love my son, but, I know he runs with a top pack of guys and chics....not from one bank, but I think all (Felix Zulauf's market prognosis, February 13).

Thanks for such a well put together overview (Felix Zulauf's market prognosis, February 13). Without the broadest gist of the real time overall picture, then any component understanding thereof is no better than a glib guess.
Truth in things political, financial, and commercial, have been disguised and euphamised for far too long. Wherever this game has been allowed to flourish there is now, or soon will be in the immediate future, a full value and unforgiven price extracted to obtain a balancing of the books.
In Australia may it not be, yet again, the honest and toiling Aussie battler who pays this price.

Lovely analysis (Felix Zulauf's market prognosis, February 13). The system's on the verge of collapse, its just a matter of how and when. "The transmission mechanism is broken" translated means the banks are just keeping the liquidity (money) that's being injected into the system and that game has now arrived in Australia. How long does anyone think it's going to last before the lid gets blown off the whole shooting match? The Germans pushing the austerity barrow is a clear indication of how short Europe's political and economic memory really is.

The US Federal Reserve is and will continue to purchase government bonds (Felix Zulauf's market prognosis, February 13). This is QE3 on a $1T/year scale. So no official QE3 just a constant hum from the printer.
BoE is and will continue to purchase government bonds. BoJ is and will continue to purchase government bonds. ECB is and will continue to swap printed euros for inflated bank assets. BoC is and will continue to print yuan to keep parity with the US dollar. A new printer, Canada, has entered the market in an effort to keep parity with the US dollar. The Swiss continue to print to keep parity with the euro. Greece will default, then Portugal, then Spain, then Italy.
A war may interrupt the death spiral of fiat money. It always has before. This time we have nuclear weapons.

The comments have been very instructive. I think we have been lulled by the relative calm in the last few decades into thinking everything will always be OK. History actually shows otherwise (Felix Zulauf's market prognosis, February 14).
Countries like Australia still have the luxury to be able to cut government waste which in countries like UK, US and Europe is difficult as they are already deleveraging. These countries can cut the government waste but use these funds for useful national infrastructure projects.
What waste? Please compare government spending in Australia or another developed country with a developing or semi-developing country – or ourselves 50 years ago.
The baby boomers are going to absorb large amounts of money in medical and pension costs – not largely provided for. Many other government programmes are probably unsustainable. Private household debt is huge in Australia compared with 120 years of data. Prepare.
Lastly we need national and international leaders of great stature, who look to their reelection second, and look to the longer term with their decisions. This will bring benefits later. Otherwise, there is lots of pain in store for most of us, without much gain down the track.
The political effects of the economic crises in Greece, Spain, Portugal, Ireland actually haven't been seen yet.

Felix Zulauf is a particularly well respected and prescient macro forecaster and investor. It is great to see him making an appearance here on Business Spectator (Felix Zulauf's market prognosis, February 15).

Felix Zulauf presents a very easily understood analysis of the economic impact now faced by Europe and America (Felix Zulauf's market prognosis, February 16). However, the economic impact is only one part of the equation. What is going to be more important in many countries will be the increase in social and political unrest. Maintaining law and order is going to be a major challenge in many countries. Now is the time to discuss those issues and to begin putting in place policies and programs to meet that challenge. What about some comments from social welfare experts?

No doubt at all Karen you write some of the best comment on Business Spectator (Felix Zulauf's market prognosis, February 17). I think Judith Sloane in the Australian is very good as well. The difference I feel is you operate more on the intuitive level compared to, say, Adam Carr.