Economic outlook 2008: cautious optimism
The past year has been somewhat messy compared to the previous three years, characterised by rising uncertainty.
The year was dominated by the US housing slump and related problems in sub-prime mortgages. Cracks first appeared in February, but by August losses in sub-prime related securities had transformed into turmoil in credit markets affecting investors around the world and driving fears of a US recession.
Growth in the US, Europe and Japan was solid but characterised by increasing signs of a slowdown, whereas emerging countries boomed led by China.
Credit market turmoil saw global interest rates start to fall, led by the US.
Commodity prices remained strong. Oil made it to just below $US100 a barrel, gold rose to near record levels, bulk commodity prices rose, but base metal prices tracked sideways after the previous years’ strength.
Global underlying inflation was benign, but headline inflation rose due to higher energy and food prices.
The $US continued to slide on worries about the US economy. This saw the euro reach record levels and helped the $A rise to a 23 year high. The Australian economy accelerated with growth rising above 4 per cent on the back of strong commodity prices, strong business investment and more tax cuts. This saw underlying inflation pushed back up to 3 per cent which prompted more interest rate increases. Export volumes remained soft and this has seen the trade deficit remain stubbornly high.
Mixed returns, but okay overall
The cross-currents above resulted in massive second half volatility and contributed to pretty mixed returns.
Global shares had modest returns helped by reasonable valuations, solid profit growth and takeover activity initially but were hit by worries about the outlook on the back of the US housing and credit market problems in the second half. Asian shares were again the star performers and Japanese shares were the laggards. Australian dollar strength detracted about 7 per cent from global share returns in $A terms.
Australian shares again came in well ahead of most expectations, on the back of solid (albeit slowing) profit growth, reasonable valuations, initial M&A activity and strong fund inflows helped by superannuation reforms and the Future Fund. Resource shares led the market, but listed property trusts, consumer discretionary and utility shares lagged. Australian shares were caught up in sub-prime related volatility but were protected to some degree by a stronger economy, minimal bank sub-prime exposure and by greater Asian exposure.
Bond returns remained modest on the back of low yields generally. Global bonds were helped by a rally in US bonds on growth fears, but in Australia bond yields rose resulting in capital losses and weak returns.
Listed property returns were poor, particularly globally, as several years of strong gains had left them vulnerable to the impact of higher borrowing costs flowing from the turmoil in credit markets.
Australian unlisted non-residential property returns remained strong as falling vacancy rates led to rising rents and as investors chased relatively attractive yields.
Infrastructure had another solid year with 10 per cent or so returns and private capital returns remained strong.
Housing provided stronger returns than over the past three years. However, this masked a mixed bag, with Perth stalling and Sydney having only modest price gains. The mixed return profile across asset classes meant overall returns for diversified investors were less than in previous years, but more in line with long term sustainable levels.
Outlook for major asset classes in 2008
The high risk of a US recession, along with the fact that the share bull market is now into its fifth year, means the investment outlook is shrouded in a higher degree of uncertainty than has been the case for some time.
However, it looks likely that investment returns will be reasonable. Likely key macro themes are as follows:
Global growth will slow but should avoid a hard landing. The risk of a US recession is high at around 40 per cent, but it should be avoided thanks to the corporate sector being in good shape, the Fed cutting interest
rates and the trade sector being likely to contribute 1 per cent to US growth. As such we see US growth slowing to around 1 per cent to 2 per cent over the next year. This will likely drag down Europe and Japan which are already slowing, but growth in the emerging world is likely to remain relatively strong thanks to strong consumption and capital spending, easy monetary conditions and minimal exposure to sub-prime related problems. Growth in China is likely to slow as monetary policy tightens – but remain robust at around 10 per cent. During the second half of the year the global growth outlook should start to improve thanks to lower interest rates.
Inflation will fall as global growth slows leading to excess capacity and increased discounting pushing inflation down. Flat to lower oil prices will also help.
Slowing growth and receding inflation will see global interest rates fall. US interest rates are likely to fall to 3.5 per cent. Slowing growth is also likely to force Europe to cut rates by mid year and Japan may even
lower rates. China is likely to be the key exception.
The combination of lower interest rates and cash from surplus countries – Asia and oil rich countries – should ensure reasonable liquidity conditions for investment markets. However, credit market
problems will likely remain a drag in the first half.
Commodity prices are likely to be soggy for the next six months or so thanks to soft global growth. Renewed strength is unlikely until later in the year when the global growth outlook will improve.
Profit growth globally should remain positive, but is likely to slow to around 5 per cent to 8 per cent as growth slows. The conditions for a profit slump – ie, a serious recession or a wages breakout – are not in place.
The Australian economy is likely to remain solid. Growth is likely to slow to around 3.5 per cent as higher interest rates and the strong $A constrain growth. But it should still be strong on the back of further tax cuts,
continued strength in business investment and a gradual recovery in housing investment and a mild pick-up in mining and rural export volumes. Sub-par growth globally and the strong $A should lead to some moderation in inflation allowing the RBA to leave interest rates on hold. Australian profit growth is expected to be around 10 per cent over the next year.
Major asset classes in 2008
Global shares should provide reasonable returns. The first half of the year is likely to see volatility remain high as investors continue swinging between worries about a US recession on the one hand and euphoria
at the prospect of lower interest rates on the other. However, conditions should improve in the second half as shares are cheap in absolute terms and relative to bonds, profit growth will slow but is unlikely to slump and lower interest rates should help price to earnings multiples rise. Also, the profit outlook should improve later in the year. Asian shares are likely to be out-performers on relatively better growth prospects. US shares are likely to outperform European shares on easier monetary policy and the weak $US.
The $A is likely to remain strong on the back of still high commodity prices and a rising interest rate differential in Australia’s favour. A spike to parity versus the $US is likely some time in the year.
While the Australian share market is likely to be volatile in the first half of the year in response to US worries and Chinese tightening, the trend is likely to remain up. The ASX 200 share index is
likely to rise to around 7300 by the end of 2008 thanks to combination of reasonable valuations, okay profit growth and solid fund inflows. The normal signs of a major market top are still not present – valuations are not extreme, sentiment towards shares is not euphoric, capital raisings are modest relative to market capitalisation, M&A activity has faded before reaching extremes and the breadth of participation in share market gains remains reasonable. With profit growth likely to be around 10 per cent, capital growth should slow. However, Australian shares should still outperform global shares thanks to a higher dividend yield, the Australian economy being in good shape, local banks having little sub-prime exposure and greater exposure to Asia. Sectors likely to do well include resources, banks, telcos and media.
Bonds continue to offer subdued returns thanks to low running yields. However, bonds offer good protection should the US economy fall apart.
Listed property may remain constrained in the first half of the year by still high borrowing costs and US recession worries, but thanks to improved valuations should have a better year in 2008.
Unlisted non-residential property should provide reasonable returns as the underlying supply/demand fundamentals remain favourable, but scope for further yield contraction is limited.
The outlook for residential investment is mixed. Affordability is poor, Australian housing is very expensive, rental yields are low and interest rates may rise further. Against this there is an undersupply of housing, rental vacancy rates are very low and rents are rising. So on balance average housing returns are likely to be okay if unspectacular.
Overall, our return expectations suggest a gain of 9.5 per cent for diversified growth investment strategies in 2008. If we are wrong it is likely to be due to a US recession as the US housing slump spreads. A US recession would mean a slump in US consumer and investment spending which are more import-intensive than housing and would thus drag down the rest of the world including Asia risking a bear market in growth assets. China is also worth watching.
Dr Shane Oliver is head of investment strategy & chief economist at AMP Capital Investors