PUNTING SPECTATOR: The Cup
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And so, as it had been foretold, the day of reckoning did cometh. Invasion Day. The foreign invasion. The locals were helpless and begged for mercy against the incoming tide.
Long feared, the source of the worst childhood nightmares talked about only in whispers. Dare not speak thy name, dare not even google thy name, for fear of what you might find.
From over the seas they came – English, Irish, French, Arab, forming a united front to seek and destroy. Storming out of their barricaded Sandown fortress to pillage and maim, and to muck up our Cups Doubles, trifectas and First Fours. Scoundrels ! Barbarians ! Have you no shame ? No mercy ?
There was only one man who could stand up . An ancient man. A wise man. A man with funny eyebrows. Some say older than time itself. Others say 80 years and 355 days, but they are just being picky. His ancient methods and wisdom had made him the stuff of legend. The mere mention of his name means his horses start under the odds on the tote year after year. One man against the rising forces of evil..
Arise Sir Bart, fair knight, and the crowds shall wave flags of your yellow with white checkerboard ensign.
Save us Sir Bart. Save us. – and instead of one statue at Flemington there shall be a statue on every street corner. And every child will know thy name as the people’s champion - and not a yellow skateboarding cartoon kid.
RACE 7: THE MELBOURNE CUP 3200M GROUP 1
Tips: 8-MAD RUSH, 19-RED LORD, 5-NOM DU JEU
Others: 23, 14, 9, 10
Pace: GENUINE STAYING TEST
Leaders : 3-HONOLULU (IRE), 12-BAUER (IRE), 13-BOUNDLESS (NZ)
Handy : 1-SEPTIMUS, 4-C'EST LA GUERRE , 6-YELLOWSTONE (IRE), 7-ZIPPING , 8-MAD RUSH (USA), 14-GALLOPIN, 15-GUYNO, 16-ZARITA, 19-RED LORD, 22-ALESSANDRO VOLTA (GB), 23-BARBARICUS Back : 2-MASTER O'REILLY, 5-NOM DU JEU (NZ), 9-ICE CHARIOT, 10-VIEWED, 11-LITTORIO, 17-NEWPORT, 18-PROFOUND BEAUTY (IRE), 20-VAREVEES (GB), 21-PRIZE LADY (NZ), 24-MOATIZE
Chances:
5-NOM DU JEU (NZ) has the right form going into this – Caulfield Cup place getter, and his finishing burst in that race was pretty good. He came from behind the (2) and the (11) and went past them, so hard to see them beating him home today. Only the 4 runs in does look a little light on – but has been showing form each start – and genuinely getting into the finish which is what you want to see. Derby winner during the Sydney Autumn, 4YO, having first crack at this race are all pluses. Barrier 1 is the question though – can drop a long way back on occasion, and might need some luck getting through the field. Then again, often they spread around the home turn in this race, and he might just get a dream run through. Definite chance and probably clear second pick – there are not many wining chances in this. Go well.
8-MAD RUSH (USA) is going to start a clear cut favourite, and expect a stack of money to come in today. Probably going to be $4 or under on the tote. Ticks all the boxes you want – OS horse, come down here and settled, had the run down here so we can line him up, incredibly unlucky run in the Caulfield Cup (which they often are!) – when snagged back to last on the home turn and weaved through the whole field – was really finishing full of gusto. Thought it was the best Caulfield Cup run for a few years. Local jockey on board is a big plus too. Lightly raced type who probably still has improvement to come. Inside barrier and can probably sit right behind the speed here and probably shoots through when the run comes. These unlucky OS horses from the Caulfield Cup have gone pretty close in this race most years, and as always the Caulfield Cup form is what you want to follow. Looks a clear stand out top pick – only question is how short he is going to start? Probably just under $4 on the tote, think that is still OK as hard to find genuine dangers. Stand out clear top pick and definitely the one to beat.
9-ICE CHARIOT is a tough as guts, dry track stayer. Been given an absolute gut busting preparation – Caulfield Cup – MV Cup – McKinnon – running 3 weeks in a row into the Cup, plus 100 push ups and sit ups after each race. And you know what? His form is pretty good. Made good ground down the middle of the track in the Caulfield Cup, competitive again at MV, and one of the few stayers who made ground in the MacKinnon. In olden days, the best run from the MacKinnon is the form you wanted – so think you need to consider him. Winner over 3200M in Bris, so you know he will run the trip, and like that he has been consistently in the money in just about every start this time in. Outside barrier is a big negative, think they need to drop him well back here, and extremely difficult to make ground from well back over 3200M. Other problem is he ran in this race in 2006 – and finished 22nd – but he showed no form at all that preparation, so happy to give him another chance. Form this time in is much better. Not often that they improve in later Cup starts though. Happy to include him – often those with lots of kms in their legs pop up into the placings in this race at odds – and think he has the fitness, he stays and the form is OK. If he settles somewhere midfield would actually rate him a decent rough chance in this, dropped back from outside barrier will need luck. Rough chance.
14-GALLOPIN is one that is worth considering – always have to consider those in winning form going into this race – especially those on the improve, and he definitely fits that bill. Started spring with a flop, but has stepped up since then and running into form at the right time. Stuck on well at Caulfield when went forward early, then fair effort in Metrop on wet track and reverse way of going. Solid staying effort to win the MV Cup. Stable has always had a high opinion of him. Had a solid staying preparation which is good. Outside barrier is tricky – normally races just behind the speed – even from outside barrier think they have to go forward. There are a few others that will go forward out wide and think he can settle in behind them – even better he should be able to come out and present at the top of the straight. Jockey is having a bit of a purple patch at the moment. Does he have the class to win this is the question? – It's hard to get enthused about the winner of the Bagot going into the Melbourne Cup. But think he has a rough chance – have to respect last start winners.
19-RED LORD starting off spring with a huge bang, but has come back to the pack since then. Can forgive Metrop. run where wet track probably did not suit. Then was making solid ground in the Coogny, and finishing on OK again last start at MV – not finishing over the top of them – but sticking on OK. Had a hard long preparation with plenty of runs – and like that if this turns into solid staying 3200M test, which is might if the internationals set up some speed. Think he is a bit under rated – showed a very nice turn of foot in his Sydney wins, and really like how he has worked to the line last two runs. Probably prefers a dry track, and maybe a slight query at the 3200M as just OK effort at only try over this distance in the Sydney Cup. Won the 2800M race on this day last year going away from them – think he might like Flem. Realise that 2800M race is hardly a great form line for this, but watching him work home last two runs you just get the impression a big track, and distance and he is going to produce something. Plus with him is that he is less one dimensional than most of these stayers, drawn wide he can go forward and sit not too far off the speed, and he does have a better turn of foot than the average stayer – so might produce and poke through in the straight. Realise he is going to be huge odds, and realise he hasn’t even been winning the weaker lead up runs, but not that many winning chances in this field and quite keen on him at the 100-1. Chance!
23-BARBARICUS has been a sudden revelation – just imagine if he didn’t get that run in the Caulfield Cup? Where would he be now ? Absolute monster of a run in that race, drawn wide, worked very hard early, and stuck on pretty well. Then kicked and looked home in the MacKinnon – and has everything you want from a Cups horses – Caulfield Cup place getter into good MacKinnon run, gets in with extremely light weight and looks a horse on the rise. Ticks an awful lot of boxes and has to go in. Bit hard to believe we are talking about the same horse who was struggling to win crappy MV night races a month ago. Drawn well, going to get perfect sit on the speed here, doubt he will lead though. Question mark with him is going to be the 3200M, especially if it is a solid staying test – but he has no weight, is on the rise, and will race handy and make his own luck – so puts himself into the finish. Genuine chance.
Place:
3-HONOLULU (IRE) is an OS runner who has drawn the outside barrier. Another who can race handy and probably pushes forward wide and on the speed here – and that is normally how the OS ones do best – given time to settle, racing in space, on the speed. Has been talk around that the stable would make sure this is a solid staying race, and of one of theirs would go forward and set the speed, so wouldn’t be surprised to see this one take it up. Ridden forward he probably sticks on – worth a place chance.
7-ZIPPING is a favourite of ours, and has run 4th in this race last two years, but he gets a nice ribbon for trying. Consistent WFA horse who keeps backing up year after year and producing – still prefer him sitting and sprinting over 2000M at WFA. Form this time in has been pretty good – probably better than last year, jockey showed some initiative and put him into the race in the Cox Plate, and was quite outspoken that he should’ve won. Only the three runs into this race this year – extremely light preparation, and no runs over 2400M – but stable managed to pull it off last year. Last year he had four runs going in – was drawn very wide, came very wide on the home turn and stuck on OK. 2006 he was trained more as a stayer, raced on speed, and stuck on OK. Drawn wide again this year. Horses that run well in this race often do well again in later years, but those who win it normally do so at their first attempt. Will have to drop back again this year. Good sign that he is actually getting into the finish in his races, but hard to see him winning. Place at best.
10-VIEWED is flying the flag for Bart, so expect him to start way under the odds on the tote – if you like him get on with Betfair or a bookmaker and get the right odds. Traditional cup preparation – which is always good to see, none of this fancy new age stuff. Did the bare minimum first two runs in, then was scratched at the barrier in the Yalumba, so effectively one run short rest of his preparation. Caulfield Cup run was good – especially considering he was one run short, so only going in with the two lead up runs. Was making good ground along the rails in the Caulfield Cup and didn’t get much room to finish off – had to duck back to the inside over the last 100M. Didn’t show much in the MacKinnon, but was hustling and bustling all the way down the straight, so really didn’t get a chance to finish it off. Probably does prefer a little give in the ground. Well drawn, and probably about to run into form, so think he is probably a place chance. Not sure if he is good enough to win this, but worth putting into your trifectas.
12-BAUER (IRE) is an OS horse who has come over, won the Geelong Cup, and got himself a free admittance ticket to Cup Day. Like to see the internationals race over here, so we can line them up, so happy to consider him. Raced wide and ground on well at Geelong – wasn’t the brilliant win of MEDIA PUZZLE. Looks a solid staying grinding type who will probably go forward here and probably stick on OK. Always have to respect those in winning form going into feature races – you need to be a the top of your game to win them. Not sure he has the brilliance to win, and stable definitely do seem to prefer the stable mate, the (8), but definitely a place chance grinding on.
17-NEWPORT is an out and out stayer who is going along OK. Worked to the line well enough in the MV Cup, and does meet the (14) 2.5kgs better for than run, the (9) 3kgs better and the (19) 2kgs better – so pretty well weighted in this against those around him from that run. That was his first start in Melbourne, so probably has improvement coming out of that run as well. Has winning form this time too – which is a plus. Does tend to mix form, and does tend to drop well back, so from the outside barrier is probably going to be one of those who attempt the near impossible – to make ground from back at the end of the 3200M. Was ready to write him off, but MV run was OK, and is well weighted into this. Doubt he is a winning chance, maybe just a rough place chance at very best.
24-MOATIZE is Bart’s other runner, and made a last minute entrance into the field by winning on Saturday. Lightly raced one, who is still on the improve, and has winning form going into this which is a big plus. No weight. The jockey is coming off a Derby win – aiming to now become first female to win a Melbourne Cup – could be quite a week. Hard, fit, 3 x 2500 M runs this time in means he has plenty of kms in the legs. He has always shown a bit of ability, just a matter of time when he was going to put it all together. You do get the feeling he is going to be better next year though. Again outside barrier is a problem, can see him racing past mid field, and doubt he has the finishing burst to come from that far back. Winning form, on the improve and no weight, so place chance though.
Sacking:
1-SEPTIMUS (IRE) is the overseas one this year that they have been talking about for months – a class above – how are they going to beat him – much better than the locals – best horse to ever come down under etc, etc. Thing is – the ones they talk about the most – are usually the ones that run the worst! Preference is always to tend towards those that have had a run here on the way through – that way you know they have settled, you can line up their form and bet with confidence rather than just betting in the dark. Has to carry top weight, which looks a real task. Did win easily last start, has won five out of last six, so is seriously flying. More importantly, drawn middle, races forward, so probably will sit out in space here up near the lead. Probably starts better odds on the tote than the bookmakers, so if you like him, that’s the place to bet. Overseas jockey had a ride on Saturday, and has a few rides during the day, so can get his eye in – which is a plus. But, honestly, if you are going to back an overseas horse blind, reckon you are better off just picking one of the roughies – they are the ones that normally get into the finish. So many big names have crashed and burned in previous years, so quite happy to take this one on – prefer to back ones we have seen and can line up. Leaving out.
2-MASTER O'REILLY has been going along OK and has been given a lighter preparation into this race this year. Ran on well in 1st two runs in, then run was pretty good in the Caulfield Cup, dropped out to last and came wide and around them and not beaten that far – and that was only his 3rd run in this time – went into the race on a very light preparation. Did nothing in the Cox Plate, but slow speed did not suit. Does have the ability to be in the finish here on his day. Last year he won the Caulfield Cup with no weight, when got dream run through and cut the corner – interesting to note he was ridden around midfield that day. Then dropped out to last in last year’s Melbourne Cup when favourite, actually hooked out and loomed like he was going to make a run – but nigh on impossible to win this race coming from last. Has drawn a nice barrier here and looks like he is going to be ridden more around mid field, which is a huge plus. But – those who win this race normally do it at their 1st try, and think his pattern of racing of dropping back makes him a big question mark here. Rough place chance if ridden more forward, but happy to risk anyway.
4-C'EST LA GUERRE has only had the 4 runs in, and hasn’t raced past 2000M, which can make it tough to win a Melbourne Cup. Stable managed to pull it off with EFFICIENT last year, but think he may be a freak, cause it is not easy to do. Ran on OK 1st up, got lost in leader dominated race at MV under lights, was looming up and threatening in the Yalumba, and fair effort in the Cox Plate – where he looked like he was about to let loose – but didn’t. Drawn a nice barrier and can probably get a nice sit in first half of field. Preparation looks light on – realise the stable did it last year, but don’t think he is as good as his stable mate. Ready to risk.
6-YELLOWSTONE (IRE) is a low profile overseas horse who has had a few setbacks – and that is never a good sign. Has only had a few weeks down here and normally you need everything to go right to be spot on going into this. Another who is not too badly drawn and can race handy if required. But generally if they have had a setback – leave them out – betting blind so might as well optimise your chances.
11-LITTORIO seems to have come to a dead halt, after looking like being the one on the up that was going to go on with it. First two runs this time in were excellent, then with weight advantage stormed to dominant win in the Turnbull (note does meet the (7) 4kgs worse off from that run). Was going into the Caulfield Cup head full of steam, pulled out wide and asked to produce, and only just plugged on. Run was probably OK – prepared to forgive it – only the 3 runs in going into that race, stuck on OK and was only beaten around 2L. Not suited by on pace slow tempo in the MacKinnon on Sat, but still, would’ve thought he would show a lot more. Big spacious Flem is more to his liking, always looked like he would stay the 3200M. Looking at this form though, you do start to wonder if maybe he needs a little give in the ground to show his best – and dry tracks last 2 starts haven’t suited ? First crack at this race, one on the up (or was one on the up), and winning form this time in are all important ticks. Outside barrier is a real negative though – can see him dropping well back here and putting in a run when the race is all over. Wouldn’t surprise to see him return to some form, but not confident enough to commit some money to the cause and willing to risk him.
13-BOUNDLESS (NZ) is an on pace staying NZ mare. Settled a lot further back than expected in the Caulfield Cup, and was badly hampered for room at the top of the straight, and then jockey had to stop riding her as the (8) whisked by – she was sticking on OK and probably should’ve finished 2-3L closer. Not far from the (5) on previous form. Has had a pretty light preparation – just the four runs in, but has proven herself over here in the 3YO filly staying events. Drawn wide and surely they have to go forward here – can see her having to work, or getting trapped wide outside the internationals. Last run was probably better than it looked, but think she is going to get used up on speed here, or left exposed and happy to leave out.
15-GUYNO is a grinding stayer from WA, who has been thereabouts, but without really impressing. Not much luck in the Geelong Cup last start, when couldn’t get a clear run along the inside, and not far off them start before a Flem. Had a solid staying preparation, well drawn and think they probably race mid field or better here. Probably wants a firm hard dry track. Not sure how strong the WA staying form is, and he hasn’t done enough over here to get enthused about his chances. Maybe a rough place chance, but prefer to leave out.
16-ZARITA is an honest staying mare who is usually not far off them. OK effort in Cox Plate when was just behind them and probably still had a little bit to give – but did get dream run on rails right behind leader in softly run race. Bombed in Turnbull before that. Pretty consistent staying filly in her 3YO season. Its always a question with the 3YO filly stayers as to whether they are really stayers or not, some of her distance wins were pretty soft, and she makes her own luck by racing up front and putting herself into the race. 3200M today might be a question mark. Well drawn, race handy, so she might stick on OK and run a place, but we are happy to let her run.
18-PROFOUND BEAUTY (IRE) is an overseas visitor from a stable who know what they are doing and will probably be the best backed of the unraced international runners away from the (1). Lightly raced, no weight, so probably haven’t seen the best of her yet. Local jockey on board too is a plus. Looking at form it looks like she races on speed, but most of those races have been in smallish fields, and trainer has said that her normal pattern is to settle back. Inside barrier is the real question here – always prefer these internationals up rolling on the speed out wide in plenty of room, good chance she is going to get a lot of pressure on the rails, won’t have the early speed, and get snagged well back and stuck on the rails. Passing.
20-VAREVEES (GB) is a Frenchie with Australian connections, but her form is seriously poor, only had three runs in the last year, and even the normally over confident jockey was struggling to make a convincing case for her during the week. Apparently she does have four legs though which is a good start. If you find anyone betting for last get on – be very surprised if she doesn’t finish tailed off.
21-PRIZE LADY (NZ) is a dour 3200M NZ stayer – not many horses can boast 2 starts for 2 wins over the 3200M. Best form is on rain affected tracks, but might get a bit of give here. Only the 3 runs into this – looks a very light preparation – note that she had 5 runs or more leading up to her other 3200M wins, and had runs over 2400M. Very hard to win this with only 2 x 2000M runs lead in. She is very dour, worked home well 2 starts back, head down, just plugging away. Interesting to note that both of her 3200M wins she has raced handy and plugged away – and think that is where she comes unstuck today – drawn wide, likely to drop back, and think she just plugs away in the straight. Can’t see her having the brilliance to run into the finish. Risking.
22-ALESSANDRO VOLTA (GB) is a lightly weighted OS horse who can lead or drop back. Always a chance that these ones might get sent forward to ensure a genuine pace for their stable mates. Naughty naughty – no pace makers allowed. OS jockey, light weight, rolling on the speed he probably sticks on OK - dropping back then he is probably out of the finish. Too hard to know, and not into betting on unknowns so leaving out.
Summary:
Seems to be a very bottom heavy field this year – as in very few winning chances and lots of these seem to be at long long odds. Traditional form lines as always going into the Melbourne Cup – Caulfield Cup form – and especially Caulfield Cup placegetters. MacKinnon Stakes seems to have been left behind as a form line, with more and more cup chances avoiding the lead up run on the Saturday.
Need to stress the importance of having form – pretty much the same in all these majors, tough contest, you need to be at your peak, wining your lead up races, or at least getting right into the finish. Although EFFICIENT came out last year with no form, if you look back over the past 20 years or so you will see 11 Cup winners were last start winners coming into this race and 4 winners were last start place getters. Main exceptions being MAKYBE DIVA in her 1st year (4th in Caulfield Cup), and JEZABEEL who got knocked over in the Caulfield Cup. So real form, winning form, want ones that have managed at least to win a race on the way through. Horses on the rise, none of this eye catching Melbourne Cup trial working home for a well beaten 5th business – they are a trap to take your money – follow them all spring and never collect and then they never produce on the day anyway.
Things to look out for : Horses that win this race are usually contesting it for the first time – they are on the way up and win it at their peak. - The roughies that pop up are normally on pacers with lots of kms in their legs – it’s incredibly tough to win Melbourne Cups coming from last, so try to avoid those who drop too far back. It is very hard to make ground at the end of 3200M – they usually do loom up, but cannot sustain their run for the whole straight.
On weights, all those from the Caulfield Cup are weighted the same, all dropping 1.5kgs. From the MacKinnon, 23-BARBARICUS gets the best weight drop AND beat those behind him convincingly From the MV Cup, 17-NEWPORT is best weighted against those who finished in front of him.
As far as the internationals go, not a fan of backing them – mainly cause don’t like betting on unknowns. The most spruiked, most ferocious one normally finishes tailed off. Those that run well are normally the no namers, at odds, that race up on the speed, in space and keep on rolling. Definite pattern though is to follow those who have had a run over here. If they come out and have a run, you can see their form, you know they have settled and can line them up against the locals.
Lots of internationals in the field this year, and question is where the speed is going to come from? Probably one or more of them will roll forward, so maybe 3-HONOLULU (IRE), 12-BAUER (IRE) rolling along, 13-BOUNDLESS (NZ) is a leader, but likely to get caught wide. 22-ALESSANDRO VOLTA (GB) might go forward too – can see 23-BARBARICUS getting a perfect sit just behind these. Can see one or more internationals rolling forward if the pace slackens (as threatened) to make sure this is a genuine staying test.
Really very few winning chances in this race. 8-MAD RUSH sticks out an absolute mile, unlucky Caulfield Cup run – huge run coming from last and weaving through the field, and think it’s one of the best Caulfield Cup runs for a few years. Expect him to be very well backed and start a clear cut favourite. We are going to pull one from left field here - 19-RED LORD at odds – started off spring very impressively, been working home last few, can probably settle forward and less one dimensional that most of these stayers. Pretty keen to have a go at the 100-1 on offer, but think with many of these at long odds it is going to go pretty quickly (so hurry!). 5-NOM DU JEU the only other obvious danger to the favourite on the Caulfield Cup form – just want him to have some luck coming through on the inside.
Normally not all that keen to bet on this race, but think might be worth having a crack this year, especially at the multiples, with lots of horses at long odds and suspect one or more will get into the finish and blow out the trifecta/first fours. So play trifectas, with 8-MAD RUSH and 5-NOM DU JEU as the winning chances, 9-ICE CHARIOT, 19-RED LORD as the value place chances along with 23-BARBARICUS who shouldn’t be far away. Throw in a few others to your liking and should give it a bit of a shake. And have something each way on 19-RED LORD!
One to risk: 1-SEPTIMUS, 4-C'EST LA GUERRE
Roughie: 9-ICE CHARIOT, 19-RED LORD
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