Bill Evans

Weekend Economist: How high?

12 comments
With inflation stirring, the debate is beginning to move from whether the RBA will cut or hike next, to how high rates might go.

Weekend Economist: Strong language

The Reserve Bank needs a combination of jawboning and an easing bias to bring the dollar down, but the latter is unlikely anytime soon.

Weekend Economist: Disoriented doves

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The doves are pointing to weaker economic data and dour confidence figures for rate cut calls. But both are not what they seem.

Weekend Economist: Stevens' swipe

Glenn Stevens had nothing to lose talking down the dollar. But we'd need to see a major consumer downturn for another rate cut.

Weekend Economist: Dollar devotion

Traders in Europe are unwilling to accept forecasts of the Australian dollar finishing the year at 90 US cents. That carry trade is still too popular.

Weekend Economist: Injured indices

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A budget-induced consumer sentiment plunge isn't unusual and a slight rebound could follow. Housing sentiment is a different story.

Weekend Economist: 2018 is the worry

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Between now and 2015-16, the government's growth forecasts are a little cautious. Heading into 2017-18, however, they're far too optimistic.

Weekend Economist: Discourse discord

The RBA's sensitivity to the Australian dollar is perhaps one explanation why its tone is so decidedly downbeat against encouraging economic forecasts.

Weekend Economist: Dollar dialect

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The RBA abandoned its 'uncomfortably high' tag for the Aussie dollar after the inflation data. Now that the dollar has risen again, will that language return?

Weekend Economist: Welcome surprise

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A lower-than-expected read on core inflation will assuage the Reserve Bank's fears of a worrying upswing.

Weekend Economist: Healthy households

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Like in the US, Australian household spending is constrained by a lack of big investment. But optimists should rest assured, we have some crucial advantages.

Weekend Economist: Rates rationale

The Australian dollar has shown unusual resilience. With rate cuts now less likely, the currency could remain higher than some anticipated.

Weekend Economist: Jobs pivot

As confidence in Australia's economy hangs in the balance, one set of data will be crucial to the Reserve Bank's rates stance.

Weekend Economist: Inflated expectations

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The Reserve Bank's upwardly revised inflation forecasts would be disturbing if its assumptions weren't so vulnerable.

Weekend Economist: Over easy

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The Reserve Bank can be reasonably assured its 'talking down the dollar' strategy is effective. Now the board will be forced to drop its easing bias.

Weekend Economist: End of easing?

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The surprise December-quarter inflation data should see the Reserve Bank drop its easing bias, putting a floor under the Australian dollar.

Weekend Economist: A confidence blow

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A soft labour market and a dip in consumer sentiment will cloud the government's Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook, which will test an already-fragile confidence in the economy further.

Weekend Economist: Dollar reversal

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Despite the Reserve Bank's new plan to pressure the dollar, an uncertain growth outlook and far-off Fed tapering could see the board cut rates early next year.

Weekend Economist: The wedge widens

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Despite the potentially uplifting effect of a change of government, businesses have been tentative about hiring and spending while households remain cautious about Australia's economic outlook.

Weekend Economist: Value judgements

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Potential movements in house prices have made the Reserve Bank reluctant to make further rate cuts to dent the dollar. Intervention may be an option if the dollar refuses to budge.

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