Bill Evans

Weekend Economist: Home improvement

7 comments
As consumer confidence improves, and with rates set to be on hold for the next 12 months, investor-driven housing activity is likely to gain momentum well into 2015.

Weekend Economist: Central bank cynicism

2 comments
The Reserve Bank's downgraded growth outlook could see rates cut this year if household consumption remains downbeat. But more likely, the bank is being overly pessimistic on consumers and rates will hold steady until August 2015.

Weekend Economist: Flat track rates

All the attention on whether rates will move up or down next ignores the reality that they won't move in either direction for some time.

Weekend Economist: How high?

12 comments
With inflation stirring, the debate is beginning to move from whether the RBA will cut or hike next, to how high rates might go.

Weekend Economist: Strong language

The Reserve Bank needs a combination of jawboning and an easing bias to bring the dollar down, but the latter is unlikely anytime soon.

Weekend Economist: Disoriented doves

3 comments
The doves are pointing to weaker economic data and dour confidence figures for rate cut calls. But both are not what they seem.

Weekend Economist: Stevens' swipe

Glenn Stevens had nothing to lose talking down the dollar. But we'd need to see a major consumer downturn for another rate cut.

Weekend Economist: Dollar devotion

Traders in Europe are unwilling to accept forecasts of the Australian dollar finishing the year at 90 US cents. That carry trade is still too popular.

Weekend Economist: Injured indices

1 comment
A budget-induced consumer sentiment plunge isn't unusual and a slight rebound could follow. Housing sentiment is a different story.

Weekend Economist: 2018 is the worry

7 comments
Between now and 2015-16, the government's growth forecasts are a little cautious. Heading into 2017-18, however, they're far too optimistic.

Weekend Economist: Discourse discord

The RBA's sensitivity to the Australian dollar is perhaps one explanation why its tone is so decidedly downbeat against encouraging economic forecasts.

Weekend Economist: Dollar dialect

5 comments
The RBA abandoned its 'uncomfortably high' tag for the Aussie dollar after the inflation data. Now that the dollar has risen again, will that language return?

Weekend Economist: Welcome surprise

1 comment
A lower-than-expected read on core inflation will assuage the Reserve Bank's fears of a worrying upswing.

Weekend Economist: Healthy households

5 comments
Like in the US, Australian household spending is constrained by a lack of big investment. But optimists should rest assured, we have some crucial advantages.

Weekend Economist: Rates rationale

The Australian dollar has shown unusual resilience. With rate cuts now less likely, the currency could remain higher than some anticipated.

Weekend Economist: Jobs pivot

As confidence in Australia's economy hangs in the balance, one set of data will be crucial to the Reserve Bank's rates stance.

Weekend Economist: Inflated expectations

7 comments
The Reserve Bank's upwardly revised inflation forecasts would be disturbing if its assumptions weren't so vulnerable.

Weekend Economist: Over easy

37 comments
The Reserve Bank can be reasonably assured its 'talking down the dollar' strategy is effective. Now the board will be forced to drop its easing bias.

Weekend Economist: End of easing?

28 comments
The surprise December-quarter inflation data should see the Reserve Bank drop its easing bias, putting a floor under the Australian dollar.

Weekend Economist: A confidence blow

20 comments
A soft labour market and a dip in consumer sentiment will cloud the government's Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook, which will test an already-fragile confidence in the economy further.

Pages