Bill Evans

The RBA’s jobs outlook brightens

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The Reserve Bank’s February statement contained a few surprise traces of optimism, including a decidedly upbeat view of labour market trends.

Why the RBA will hold steady

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Two key factors are likely to ensure the RBA keeps rates unchanged.

No change in the RBA’s holding pattern

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As the central bank’s view about the rate of growth required to stabilise unemployment shifts, the likelihood of a further rate cut has diminished.

Fed waves will break in Australia

Gradual restoration of ‘normalcy’ in the US is likely to edge up Australian bond rates and weigh heavily on the Australian dollar.

The economic year that will be

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In 2016, the Fed tightened four times, Sydney and Melbourne's housing markets defied the doomsayers and China’s rebalancing progressed well ... but how'd Donald Trump go?

Dollar 'mights' won't hurry the RBA's hand

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This week's GDP update would have reinforced the Reserve Bank's 'no change' position, and a resilient Australian dollar is unlikely to change that stance.

Weekend Economist: No change

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A re-run of the Reserve Bank's about-face on rates that occurred this time last year looks unlikely.

Weekend Economist: RBA risks

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A severe collapse in the iron ore price could cloud Australia's terms-of-trade outlook, potentially opening up the possibility of rate cuts.

Weekend Economist: Confidence comeback

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The recent surge in consumer sentiment can be maintained as long as confidence in the Turnbull government holds. The upcoming tax debate will be a critical test.

Weekend Economist: Confident stance

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It will take a downward revision of the RBA's growth forecast from 3 per cent to 2.5 per cent to trigger a rate cut in 2016.

Weekend Economist: Holding on

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The drop in inflation is a surprise, but it is unlikely to spark a rate cut from the Reserve Bank.

Weekend Economist: Too early to ease

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Though all four banks have now raised rates, the Reserve won't move before December, when it can assess the impact.

Weekend Economist: Rate cut chain reaction?

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Banks tend to move at a similar time when operating out of cycle with the RBA. But the central bank may bide its time before deciding a response.

Weekend Economist: Triple dollar sign

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The Australian dollar has further to fall for three reasons - the Fed, commodities and external debt.

Weekend Economist: Flat rate caveat

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The Australian rates outlook into 2016 looks steady, provided global markets find their own stability.

Weekend Economist: Why the disinterest?

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Debt levels in Australia and the US mean low interest rate expectations are reasonable. But the market's overdone it.

Weekend Economist: Just about Fed up

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The Fed might be on hold for now. But Governor Stevens expects a hike by year's end and AUD expectations should reflect that.

Weekend Economist: Just about Fed up

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The Fed might be on hold for now. But Governor Stevens expects a hike by year's end and AUD expectations should reflect that.

Weekend Economist: Get ready for Fed lift-off

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The Fed's rate hike will be a historic event, and it will be interesting to see how unprepared markets respond.

Weekend Economist: Unwise surprise

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The latest GDP figures wouldn't have surprised the RBA, putting the market's timeline for a cut on very shaky ground.

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