Bill Evans

Weekend Economist: Steady as she goes

Despite some significant changes in the Australian dollar and commodity prices, the Reserve Bank is likely to upgrade its growth forecasts.

Weekend Economist: Watch for 2015

2 comments
The spate of recent 'one-off' events have given forecasts of modest movements from central banks in 2015 and 2016 undue credit.

Weekend Economist: Dollar dazzler

10 comments
Australian dollar pessimists underestimate the strength of the global economy, which should drive a substantial lift in the local currency.

Weekend Economist: The Fed factor

1 comment
The RBA's 'period of stability' line is unlikely to go until the Federal Reserve's intentions are clear. But when the Fed hikes, it could hike hard.

Weekend Economist: Where prudence lives

6 comments
If you examine the balance sheet of the average Australian household, it becomes harder to argue for fresh APRA initiatives.

Weekend Economist: A matter of prudence

Rising house prices have got the RBA's attention. With New Zealand rolling out macro-prudential policies, should Australia follow suit?

Weekend Economist: Figures of fiction

When assessing the RBA's outlook for a rate hike, investors should treat the latest jobs numbers with a healthy amount of scepticism.

Weekend Economist: Currency cocoon

Stability is sheltering the Australian dollar carry trades of the hedge funds. The end of QE3 could shake that protection.

Weekend Economist: Not half bad growth

June's sudden GDP slowdown is unlikely to surprise or concern the Reserve Bank. But growth in the latter half of 2014 is on track be much higher than the bank expects.

Weekend Economist: A telling tale

1 comment
Over the last six months, the difference between Australia’s long and short-term interest rates has narrowed. That would typically be attributed to a tightening monetary policy stance -- but here it's a little different.

Weekend Economist: Home improvement

7 comments
As consumer confidence improves, and with rates set to be on hold for the next 12 months, investor-driven housing activity is likely to gain momentum well into 2015.

Weekend Economist: Central bank cynicism

2 comments
The Reserve Bank's downgraded growth outlook could see rates cut this year if household consumption remains downbeat. But more likely, the bank is being overly pessimistic on consumers and rates will hold steady until August 2015.

Weekend Economist: Flat track rates

All the attention on whether rates will move up or down next ignores the reality that they won't move in either direction for some time.

Weekend Economist: How high?

12 comments
With inflation stirring, the debate is beginning to move from whether the RBA will cut or hike next, to how high rates might go.

Weekend Economist: Strong language

The Reserve Bank needs a combination of jawboning and an easing bias to bring the dollar down, but the latter is unlikely anytime soon.

Weekend Economist: Disoriented doves

3 comments
The doves are pointing to weaker economic data and dour confidence figures for rate cut calls. But both are not what they seem.

Weekend Economist: Stevens' swipe

Glenn Stevens had nothing to lose talking down the dollar. But we'd need to see a major consumer downturn for another rate cut.

Weekend Economist: Dollar devotion

Traders in Europe are unwilling to accept forecasts of the Australian dollar finishing the year at 90 US cents. That carry trade is still too popular.

Weekend Economist: Injured indices

1 comment
A budget-induced consumer sentiment plunge isn't unusual and a slight rebound could follow. Housing sentiment is a different story.

Weekend Economist: 2018 is the worry

7 comments
Between now and 2015-16, the government's growth forecasts are a little cautious. Heading into 2017-18, however, they're far too optimistic.

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