Stephen Grenville

What to make of the IMF's watershed?

Emerging countries are now larger than advanced economies in one important respect, according to the IMF's World Economic Outlook. But behind the Fund's forecasts there's a far more nuanced story.

What Abbott's business delegation can learn in Asia

Delaying FTAs with Japan and China would not mean a failed Asian tour for the Prime Minister, especially if the members of his business delegation recognise the enormity of the Asian economic relationship.

Why China is unlikely to have a 'Lehman moment'

If you're waiting for a 2008-like financial crash in China, expect to wait a long time.

How not to bail out a country

4 comments
Emergency bailouts are still creating moral hazard for both debtor and creditor countries. Taxpayers are bearing the long-term cost, while bondholders walk away unscathed.

Why the TPP needs China

Obama's TPP is in trouble. He should persevere, and push for a truly comprehensive deal that includes China.

Why there won't be a repeat of the Asian financial crisis

Fear of another Asian market crisis is misguided. Most emerging economies have learned their lesson from 1997 by ditching dubious policies, tightening financial regulation and trimming budget deficits.

The international economy in 2014

19 comments
2014 will present brighter prospects for the US and UK, although some fiscal adjustment is needed. Volatile capital flows will trouble emerging economies and debt forgiveness will be needed for a European recovery.

The case against 'secular stagnation'

4 comments
Larry Summers' gloomy argument that ‘secular stagnation’ is to blame for low growth ignores the real, fixable problems that major economies are facing.

Naysayers, feel the Asiaphoria

1 comment
It’s understandable Larry Summers is sceptical of Asian convergence. But there’s too much evidence to ignore pointing to the region’s rapid growth.

Think global, act local on monetary policy

3 comments
International discussions have largely declared monetary policy to be a domestic issue, but the distortion of extreme quantitative easing on the global economy requires a coordinated policy response.

Crisis response lessons left unlearned

1 comment
Policy makers failed to learn from the Asian crisis when responding to the European and American financial dramas, throwing future crisis responses into doubt.

In the line of rogue US firepower

1 comment
Emerging markets such as India and Indonesia need protection against the disruptive policy adjustments in the US, but will find little support from the IMF.

Finger-wagging at the wrong growth culprits

It’s not sensible to bemoan lower emerging economy growth, as the IMF is doing while it plays catch-up with adjustments that occurred two years ago.

Tricks of the trade negotiations

4 comments
Between the TPP, the RCEP, bilateral free-trade negotiations and the Doha Round, Australian officials will be pretty busy. But each of these negotiating streams has trade-offs.

A case for economic optimism amid the pundits' gloom

8 comments
Economic pessimists are agonising over the world's longer-term growth prospects, but repairing balance sheets, policy mistakes and political ineptitude is not an impossible task.

Absolving China in the GFC blame game

6 comments
Resurrecting the line of thought that blames China for global financial problems is distracting the US from domestic policy deficiencies and unfinished financial reform.

Fear and floating in the global economy

1 comment
Given the disruptive nature of capital flows, emerging markets' fear of floating is well-founded. An interventionist approach could promote greater stability.

No sucker punch for fighting young markets

Emerging markets' capital flows reversals are a painful inconvenience rather than a foretaste of disaster, and their growth is still putting the developed world to shame.

Extracting the benefits of foreign mining investment

10 comments
Given foreign-owned companies accumulate 83 per cent of mining profits, a mining tax rethink should be at the forefront of both parties' hardline stance on foreign investment.

Too many trade-offs on the bilateral low road

2 comments
Bilateral treaties have advantages over complex multilateral talks, but Australia's politicians would be better pursuing the time-consuming and onerous alternative.

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