Steve Keen

  • A soothsayer's voice forever silenced

    Steve Keen 2
    David Hirst knew economic madness when he saw it and did his best to warn of the Armageddon headed for Wall Street. His powerful voice for sanity and common sense will be greatly missed.
  • Graph for More to forecasting than neoclassicals and Nostradamus

    More to forecasting than neoclassicals and Nostradamus

    Steve Keen 5
    Paul Krugman’s criteria for evaluating economic predictions are solid. If only he could apply them to forecasts outside his own neoclassical tradition.
  • Graph for Calm before a deathly debt storm

    Calm before a deathly debt storm

    Steve Keen 9
    Conventional economists like Ben Bernanke were tricked by low volatility preceding the financial crisis. But a period of tranquility is normal before an economy is sucked into a treacherous vortex of debt.
  • Is QE quantitatively irrelevant?

    Steve Keen 18
    Although it dramatically boosts the reserves of private banks, quantitative easing does nothing to directly increase the money supply.
  • Steve Keen

    Seductive supermodels of supply and demand

    Steve Keen 13
    Behind beguilingly contrasting appearances, competing models of supply and demand may have far more in common than their adherents realise.
  • The housing rally to have, when you're not having a rally

    Steve Keen 41
    The current ‘booming market’ involves almost the lowest level of housing sales volume since 2002. It’s almost certainly a reason why last week’s ABS data showed prices petering out.
  • Steve Keen

    A deficit debate that's all out of whack

    Steve Keen 54
    Data since 1975 shows Australia's economy largely controls politicians, not the other way around. Running a budget deficit will not drive inflation to devastating levels.
  • When stability goes belly up

    Steve Keen 14
    It may be that debt crises, and not only instability, are an unavoidable characteristic of capitalism unless some mechanism is added to reduce levels of accumulated debt.
  • Instability may not be optional

    Steve Keen 16
    What if capitalism demanded hopes for financial gain exceeding rational calculation, and periodic bubbles were the necessary price of innovation?
  • House prices shoot towards a ceiling

    Steve Keen 58
    Current house price rises are coming entirely from speculators rather than owner-occupier investment. And there's limited potential for further gains... unless one possible loophole is exploited.
  • The stock secrets hidden in margin debt

    Steve Keen 11
    There are astounding, yet slightly different, correlations between margin debt and share market moves in the US and Australia. It reveals the varied fragility of each country's rally.
  • Alan Greenspan

    Greenspan's bullish, time to sell

    Steve Keen 5
    The rapid rise in markets over the last year should theoretically boost GDP and consumer confidence. But look closely at the data and a different, and troubling, picture emerges.
  • Modelling economic balance like it's 1975

    Steve Keen 2
    As it turns out, Paul Krugman applies a standard equilibrium interpretation to the IS-LM model. But its creator used the 1975 US depression to show he couldn't accept this.
  • The EU has thrown Cyprus to the wolves

    Steve Keen 28
    The European Union’s demand for Cypriot funds will ripple across the continent, stirring Europe’s far right and becoming a major turning point in the campaign to return to national currencies.
  • Oblivious to the essence of equilibrium

    Steve Keen 3
    Even John Hicks, creator of the IS-LM model, felt obliged to abandon equilibrium thinking in circumstances where today's champions of his model do not.
  • How Krugman lost equilibrium

    Steve Keen 5
    The IS-LM economic model favoured by Paul Krugman only works if the economy is in equilibrium. As soon as you acknowledge this isn't the case, it fails.
  • Where Krugman went wrong

    Steve Keen 2
    Paul Krugman's praise of the IS-LM model as a way to harmonise two seemingly incompatible views about what determines interest rates, involves its own irreconcilable logic.
  • Krugman's economic modelling morass

    Steve Keen 5
    Paul Krugman is championing John Hicks' IS-LM model as an explanation of today's economic crisis. It's an unrealistic theory that time should have weeded out.
  • An empirical nail for the austerity coffin

    Steve Keen 7
    Fresh analysis disproving the correlation between debt levels and eurozone bond spreads puts the brakes on the allure of austerity.
  • Gittins and economic dyspepsia

    Steve Keen 13
    When John Maynard Keynes said we're all dead in the long run, it's obvious he was criticising modelling of the economy as if it's in continuous equilibrium.
  • Don't look for high-rise house prices

    Steve Keen 25
    It's true a 'slower fall' in mortgage debt is putting short-term, upward pressure on house prices. But forecasts of a 10 per cent rise would require mortgage debt to hit an unlikely 2-3 per cent of GDP this year.

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