Rudd support stalls: Newspoll


Support for Prime Minister Kevin Rudd and Labor since he replaced Julia Gillard as leader late last month appears to have stalled, according to the latest Newspoll.

Initial poll results after the June 26 spill showed support for Labor surged to a competitive 50-50, two-party preferred, but weeks later, the latest poll in The Australian newspaper shows results have eased slightly, with the coalition on 52 per cent compared to Labor's 48, based on preference flows at the 2010 election.

Primary vote support for Labor steadied, going from 38 per cent two weeks ago to 37 per cent, while the coalition's primary support rose to a four-week high of 45 per cent, up three percentage points.

Since reclaiming the top job, Mr Rudd has radically changed ALP rules for securing a prime minister's leadership and heading off corruption, as well as fast-tracking the implementation of an emissions trading scheme and initiating tough asylum seeker reform with PNG.

Mr Rudd's satisfaction rating surged compared with Ms Gillard's and it now sits on 42 per cent, down one point since the last poll, while his dissatisfaction rating jumped five percentage points to 41 per cent.

Opposition Leader Tony Abbott's satisfaction and dissatisfaction ratings remain the same on 35 per cent and 56 per cent respectively.

On the question of who would make the better prime minister, Mr Rudd continues to lead Mr Abbott, but fell from 53 to 50 per cent, while support for Mr Abbott rose from 31 to 34 per cent.

In a separate Newspoll, Mr Rudd's tough new stance on asylum seekers lifted Labor's ratings on the issue to its highest level since Julia Gillard's proposal for regional processing in East Timor during the 2010 election.

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The latest Morgan Poll has it 52.5% Labor and 47.5% Coalition, two party preferred. This poll is more extensive and is noted as being more accurate than Newspoll and the others in terms of past elections. Given that Rudd is way ahead as preferred PM, is sorting out the various policies, and the debates haven't started yet (you would think that Rudd would have a definite edge here), it could be Labor in a landslide.
Only in your dreams Chrispy. The longer Rudd waits the further support for Labor will fade away. Voters will remember why they were ready to give Rudd and Labor the flick three years ago.
Are you for real Crispy? KRudd the dud and the whole incompetent and inexperienced Labor mob will suffer the fate of NSW and QLD Labor and they know it. The lead up to this elections is almost exactly the NSW/QLD. KRudd and all the Labor supporters will now play the man - Abbott (just watch and see the posts to this blog) as there is no good record of government to fall back on. This will spell certain defeat in a landslide to Abbott, who is one of the most experienced ministers / shadow ministers to become PM. Glory days for Australia under a coalition government are ahead of us!
I agree with you that labour is full of incompetent idiots. However, I'm not too sure abot the glory days returning. The mining boom is coming to an end, manufacturing is in declne, jobs offshoring is in full swing and the world economy is lucky to be growing at all. Can you translate for me how Abbotts 3-word slogans will bring back the glory days when the debt fuelled world wide ponzi scheme was in full swing? I have not seen one decent policy from him yet, but I guess they will come in good time!
Labor in a landslide... hehehe with jokes like that you could have your own show...
Music to Abbott's (big) ears.......and Music to Rudds ears...both leaders will take heart from these numbers, sadly, for Abbott, although he will win, he wont get the Libs in a position to do much good and the Libs aint got the balls to kick him out and put Turnbull in. Thank god for the Libs notion of fair play....not for them any consideration of a better Australia when a gentleman has done a good job, they stick by him...reward head kicking, and getting rid of a PM or 2, but not having a full handle on where oz should sit in the world doesn't matter to them. They will reward the head kicker. .
I think you may have to eat your words about Abbot as a PM Tony. History supports my stance that a brilliant opposition leader usually makes an excellent PM for the very same reasons that they were brilliant in Opposition. The fact is that we will not know until well after the Lib's are returned to government, but my money is on the Coalition "Team" headed by captain Tony will sail the ship very well indeed.
I hope you are right Roger, and in a very real sense I admire Abbott, even if he doesn't always see things my way, you cant fault him for being on the ball with an issue as and when it comes up Turnbull on the other hand simply dismisses those things that he considers beneath his intellect or only what a lessor mortal has to do.
I don't think we can underestimate the fact that Abbott has not only had to deal with a barage of mud slinging from Labor, much of it completely unjustified, but he has also had to deal with an extremely biased ABC and SMH. It would be hard to find a single positive thing they have had to say about him, whereas they have taken every opportunity to give credence to Labors claims, whether that be punching a wall 30 years ago or behaving like a misogynist. It is a credit to Abbott's policies that the only way Rudd and Labor can improve their credibility is to start now adopting very similar policies themselves.
Australians are the most decent people on earth. Rudd committed a cardinal sin by disrupting Howard's humane solution to the Asylum seekers trade. He, in his fasion, thought best and, in the guise of being caring, closed down the facilities agreed to with our close neighbors for no apparent reason, except for just being Rudd. His misadventure cost Australia billions and rendered our proud Senior Service to the role of sea rescuers which they performed magnificently and saved hundreds of lives in the process. Whilst Rudd was not at all responsible for the regrettable loss of lives. Clearly, he was above his depth in running this beautiful country of ours. Evidenced by the fact that the Labor MP, whom we have grown to love to hate, is reported to have challenged Rudd during the talkfest yesterday, with words to the effect of - You said you changed, but you did a bad start of it today. Let's have a civilised election and let the people decide.
Addendum. missing words: Stephen Michael Conroy
Yes Chrispy, watch the polls carefully. Any poll you choose to watch. Especially after Mr. Rudd announces an election date and the Coalition move into full attack mode. Mr Abbott has brought two PMs down.Watch him bring down a third. He is a very experienced politicion with a very experienced team. A predator, who knows full well the benefits of observation, patience and silence. Loud mouthed, shallow and thoughtless showmanship might be impressive to the young and inexperienced and the naieve, but common sense rules and Australians are not fools.
Cedric you couldn't be more accurate. Abbott remains calm, stable and observant. He is the quintessential equivalent of a political stealth bomber. When the starting gun goes, he will wipe the floor with the megalamaniacal Rudd. Isn't it obvious Abbott has kept his powder dry until Rudd stops playing mind games with us over the election date. The swollen-headed eternal failure Rudd is leading the Labor party to a toxic conclusion. He's never been anything but trouble for them. Gillard/Rudd. An era the Labor Party will surely be happy to put behind them. But how do they get rid of Rudd? Kicking and screaming, I suggest.
The only problem with the Rudd/Gillard era ending is that they don't have one decent person left to rebuild so labour might not be too happy for quite some time.
Rudd has seen off three Coalition leaders.
Rudds popularity has probably peaked as every day reminds us why Labor sacked him in 2010.The later he leaves the election the greater the defeat.I am reminded that Napoleon's 100 days lead to his disastrous defeat at Waterloo.
This is the Australian newspaper, remember. Here is a graph of the analysis that the Australian published. Note that the 2nd last point in the graph is the NewsPoll result marked July 1st. This was gathered at the last weekend of June. The results from NewsPoll can be found here: Note that no newer results are shown on the NewsPoll site, suggesting that if NewsPoll did a survey, last weekend, it was one paid for by the Australian. I suspect one gets what one pays for. Here is data from Morgan Poll Research. Notice that they are both reasonably consistent (well within uncertainty) with each other for the last weekend of June: ALP LNP Morgan 51.5 48.5 NewsPoll 51 49 Then, what the Australian "graph" shows is in marked contrast to what Morgan show. According to the Australian, the difference plummets to 50:50, but is then reported as being 48:52?? Meanwhile Morgan show that the gap widened by the first weekend of July to 54.5:45.5, before settling back to 52.5:47.5. This is a gulf wide enough to be beyond statistical error. Basicly Morgan will have had to lie to create numbers like that, if the Australian numbers are to be believed. Because we cannot actually see the actual NewsPoll data, then it comes down to do we believe Morgan, or do we believe the Australian. That is a "no contest".
It took me less than 5 minutes to do this research. The journalist who wrote this article was being very lazy. Note to editor: please slap the knuckles of the journo who wrote this "twaddle".
The Real Rudd: Watch this video: Members of his own party including MPs and cabinet ministers say he is impossible to work with. Five MPs and a PM have announced their resignations from federal politics with the rerise of Rudd. If you question him he freezes you out. He will do and say anything to 'get over the line' in the election. But let's remember the quote from Peter Garret before Rudd got elected the first time - 'when we get in we will change everything.' Meaning that everything said could be rewritten. Where is the integrity of the party in this? We saw this in action with Gillard last time with "there will be no carbon tax with a government I lead." Rob Burgess said today that this party has truly lost its way. There needs to be a good video on the Greens too as lots of their policies seem to assume unlimited funding. A bit of negative campaigning on them would set the public perception of the Greens right. This is Abbot's plan right now: 'rope a dope' taken from the Muhammad Ali boxing playbook - you take some punches while bouncing off the ropes tiring your opponent - letting your opponent self destruct. Once the election is called then the 'Kevin O Lemon' ads begin. And there will be policies. Yet as we know Rudd will say anything to be elected the Coalition is taking care not to give out the policies too early so as to give more chance for Rudd to adopt them. This government has truly lost its way.
I cannot understand why anyone is surprised at this. It was inevitable that Rudd's popularity would stall once people were reminded of why he was so bad last time. Just in the last week, we have been reminded of Rudd's chaotic style with the auto leasing industry decimated and the '2 page platitude agreement' with PNG unrevelling before our eyes to nothing. It takes months for all the research, consultation, planning, costing, organisation and management to implement a policy successfully. Why did anyone think that Rudd could somehow circumvent all of that and have a solution in two weeks ? Some people must be incredibly gullible or have very little life experience. On the subject of Turnbull, let's be honest about this: it's only Labor voters who want Turnbull. Liberal voters don't even talk about the subject. The reason Labor voters want Turnbull is because they are so ashamed of their own team that they want to vote Liberal but just can't quite make that move because Abbot is a little too far to the right for them. Turnbull on the other hand is much closer to their left leanings and they would vote for him. Labor and its voters are panicking because they are scared stiff of the fact that Abbott will make a very good PM in comparison with the present sham of union hacks.
I've voted liberal my whole life and I want Turnbull. I refuse to vote for Abbott so it's gonna be a donkey vote from me unless I see something worthwhile in the next few months. For a country of 23 million Australia should have better than the rabble of political point scorers on both sides of politics. How about some policies that are in the best interests of Australia. And why can't oppositons release polocies because they are scared of them being stolen. If the policy they are hiding is so good and in the best interests of Australia the opposition should not care if their policy is stolen by the government!!
It is just a good news that someone is supporting another person.
Voters do not trust Abbott any more because he has been telling too many lies!!!
The only lies are the fabrications that you post. Please do not insult our intelligence.
Coincidently, in pro-LNP news, they suggest Abbot is considered honest by voters ... vested interests - like Abbott - are prepared to sell their arse for power; Joe Hockey wants to sell-out bank-account holders in favour of the banks a la Cyprus ... the ship is sinking and the rats have commandeered the financial life-boats ... but at the end of the day, has anyone asked them where can they run to ...
First the honeymoon. Then life carries on and everyone remembers...
Welcome to the world of the new "consultative " KRudd; he has gone into hiding now that he has stuffed up big time with the PNG solution and the car fringe benefits rule. Apparently he did not even have the decency to inform the Indonesian government about the PNG situation, after agreeing to a regional framework with the Indonesian President only a week ago. It was a joke watching Bill Shorten squirm uncomfortably on Q&A last evening, trying to promote a policy which any true Labor party person could not condone. They have totally stuffed up a situation which was totally under control under Howard, and they cannot find a solution which will appease the majority. The Immigration Minister Burke is out trying to promote this PNG policy, but you only have to look into his eyes to see how poisonous he really thinks it is. Bad luck Labor, you voted KRudd back in, and now you are stuck with him. Now Labor has to try to patch up matters with the car industry because of another of Rudd's non-consultations and policy on the run decisions; what a balls-up. And all of this is costing taxpayers billions (uncosted) to go on top of the $300 billion Labor has already racked up in debt. The honeymoon is well and truly over for this charlatan; bring on the election I say. Loved the PNG newspaper headline "Ruddiculous", even they can see through this bloke and they don't have to suffer him on a daily basis.
Andrew Leow, if as you say "Abbott has been telling too many lies", and mind you "lies" come in many shades of grey, then he is definitely second to Rudd, a black belt holder in deception, plausible half truths, and a sayer of anything he thinks he can get away with. All politicians dress things up, but I don't think Abbott is the liar you say he is. He is a 'conviction' politician who believes absolutely in the values (not always everyone's) that underpin his politics. He certainly needs to brush up on how he comes across, walk not swagger, etc, but that's not what running the Country is about. At least with Abbott you know what you get. Rudd is a narcissistic chameleon who changes his tune to suit the situation, and given time, those stilled fooled will work him out. Just who is the real Rudd? Suggest you check out the attached link.
I actually believe in his refugee policy, but for a religous man his supposed catholic convictions of kindness and charity that they are supposed to uphold don't exactly come across too well. Then again, most religous people are hypocrites who follow their religions convictions when it suits them. I wonder what other convictions he is willing to cast aside in the pursuit of politcal point scoring.
Brad, Mr Rudd is not Catholic. Mr Abbott is a Catholic.
Peter,what do you mean with Abbott you know what you get? His 'convictions' in the past ,such as work choices and wanting to make Abortion more difficult for women to obtain,is that what we are going to get ? He now says work choices is dead and buried ,so much for conviction,or is that a lie? In my opinion he wants POWER, that is what he craves above all else,the only thing he wouldn't do to be Prime Minister is sell his arse,and on that issue we will have to take his word.
Gosh,not long to go now and we can finally see some actual policies from Mr Abbott,its a bit misguided to think its all over bar the shouting for the Coalition to romp in to government.Abbott is disliked by over half the population and in my opinion it was the main reason there was such a surge in Rudd's popularity in the Polls,any way you cut it Abbott is not someone who engenders unity in Australians, he polarizes people ; Coalition policies (pray they are properly costed) will have to be inclusive of ALL Australians to ameliorate this problem or else we could end up with the Coalition holding onto power with backing from independents,now wouldn't that be ironic.
@ Brad - C'mon don't you remember the 2007 election. Every time Howard announced a policy, Rudd said "me too". The Coalition will announce their policies when the election campaign is on, and not before. The question is will Rudd try the same tactic again, and all those who love the "pop star" (with a narcissistic personality disorder imo) who grins, and hugs, and pats people on the head be gullible enough to follow him with their vote. Abbott is an intelligent, ordinary bloke and Turnbull (well) he had his turn as leader and blew it.
I suppose there is always a bit of pinching of policies going on, if you can call it that. You could say that the Coalition pinched the idea of a consumption tax, outlined by Labor 15 years earlier. These days, I didn't think the Coalition had any policies to pinch, or none worthwhile. Rudd is quickly taking the middle ground, which really is what any party needs to do these days - target the swinging voters. The problem for Abbott is that he is too far to the right. And in terms of policies, well ... he's not into climate change, so any environmental policies will probably fall short; sending back the boats was never going to work; and then there's the paid parental leave policy, which will cost billions.
So Abbott's policies are too far to the right Chrispy? Is that why Rudd went 75% of the way to scrapping the carbon Tax and is now trying to introduce his own tougher version of the Pacific Solution?
KRudd...middle ground??? Surely you jest Chrispy. KRudd is leaning further right than any Liberal atm and he is the Master of Pinched Policies. Geez, his nickname is Meetoo. Honestly, if he had a thought of his own it would be lonely. Much easier to tweak this, twaddle that and, Hey Presto, a brand new, all his own idea, KRudd Policy Spectacular!! LOL Amazing!!! I love reading your posts Chrispy, keep up the good work!! ;o)
haha ... maybe it's time Abbott released a few policies, and we'll see what they look like.
Brad, I'm with you on the donkey vote. I don't trust Rudd but can't abide Abbott who to me lacks substance- a characteristic of most bullies.
Lets look at a an issue like abortion and put it in perspective. We can't trust ABBOTT because he wants to stop little babies being aborted and that makes him a bad man. On the other hand Gilliard/RUDD was all for aborting babies up to birth, Does anyone actually sit back and look at their position. Abbott wants to save babies being butchered, so out he goes, Gilliard wants to butcher babies, but her idea is backable and completely endorsed by Labour and the greens. Now tell me here and now why Australia is getting sicker by the day. When we are prepared to abort so many babies for matters of sheer convenience and then belittle those who try and prevent this its paints a very sad picture of the moral compass of people in this country. I used to travel to Asia a lot and Indonesia in particular. They as in their politicians think we are pathetic, how do I know because I have talked to them. You can imagine what they think about us lecturing them on human rights when we scream blue murder over some cows having their throats cut before cooking, but we kill little babies by the tens of thousands.
Rudd's leap to the right on cancelling the very necessary tough actions on addressing carbon emissions and then falling for the belief that you can stop the boats will lose him the election. Pandering to the media and the deluded public that believe what they read on the papers and the ads they call news on the telly is no way to lead this country.
gee John, you must be living on another planet, because the one I'm on shows that support for Labor has surged since Rudd took over. However, I must agree with you, what sank Labor's chances was Gillard's young team of slick hip advisors who were out of touch with average Aussies. At least Rudd is reading the strong signals of what they want. In the end however, I believe he has flip-flopped too much and he will be an easy target for Abbot to nail down.
Yes Bob there was a big surge to Labour and now that is fading. The polls directly follow the main stream media's rhetoric because most Australians are gullible and stupid, having little knowledge of policy or the reasoning behind it. Murdoch can easily influence a basically ignorant Australian electorate and get a big business supporting party like the coalition across the line without too much difficulty. Look our successful they were at destroying Gillard who did more for average Aussies than all Liberal Prime Ministers put together. Abbott with all his gutlessness and slimy character, has always, and will always, be highly promoted by Murdoch and his self interests as best thing since sliced bread.
The coalitions policies are actually very obvious. 1 Reduce taxes on the rich. 2 Reduce public services. 3 Remove red tape and green tape so that business can profit with no responsibility required. 4 Assist big business to be more profitable by eliminating any workers rights. 5 Promote gambling and the sale of alcohol to everyone because it is a very profitable business. 6 Reduce business taxes and allow tax loopholes for the rich. 7 Force people into private health care. 8 Allow the use of cheap imported labour. 9 Sell off anything owned by the Australian people into the hands of overseas big business interests. 10 Allow the Chinese State owned goliaths to buy up what's left of our agricultural production. 11 Make sure that Murdoch retains his 80% monopoly over the media and can publish anything he likes. 12 Keep the public in the dark about the coming climate disaster. 13 Return the budget to surplus and everyone in big business will be very happy with Murdoch's papers and television explaining what a fantastic job they have done.
Some of these are probably not too far off the mark. Also, people should look at the mess the Liberal National government is making in Queensland. The economy is going backwards and deficits are larger than those of the previous Labor government. The better poll is the Morgan Poll, which has Labor at 52.5% and Coalition at 47.5% on a two party preferred basis.